Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (NSE BEL Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We evaluate Bharat Electronics Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE BEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE BEL stock.


Keywords: NSE BEL, Bharat Electronics Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. Is Target price a good indicator?

NSE BEL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The presented paper modeled and predicted stock returns using LSTM. The historical data of stock market were transformed into 30-days-long sequences with 10 learning features and 7-day earning rate labeling. The model was fitted by training on 1200000 sequences and tested using the other 350000 sequences. We consider Bharat Electronics Limited Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE BEL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE BEL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE BEL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE BEL Bharat Electronics Limited
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE BEL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Bharat Electronics Limited assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE BEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE BEL stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE BEL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba3
Operational Risk 4972
Market Risk3555
Technical Analysis3974
Fundamental Analysis4541
Risk Unsystematic3587

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 735 signals.

References

  1. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  2. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  3. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  4. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
  5. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  7. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE BEL stock?
A: NSE BEL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is NSE BEL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE BEL Stock.
Q: Is Bharat Electronics Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Bharat Electronics Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE BEL stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE BEL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE BEL stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE BEL is (n+8 weeks)

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