Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (LON:PNL Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. We evaluate PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST PLC prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PNL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PNL stock.


Keywords: LON:PNL, PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is prediction in deep learning?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

LON:PNL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

As stock data is characterized by highly noisy and non-stationary, stock price prediction is regarded as a knotty problem. In this paper, we propose new two-stage ensemble models by combining empirical mode decomposition (EMD) (or variational mode decomposition (VMD)), extreme learning machine (ELM) and improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm for stock price prediction, which are respectively named EMD–ELM–IHS and VMD–ELM–IHS. We consider PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST PLC Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PNL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PNL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:PNL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PNL PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PNL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PNL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PNL stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:PNL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 6040
Market Risk6379
Technical Analysis8037
Fundamental Analysis4045
Risk Unsystematic4941

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 815 signals.

References

  1. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  3. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  4. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  5. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
  6. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
  7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PNL stock?
A: LON:PNL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:PNL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PNL Stock.
Q: Is PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST PLC is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PNL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PNL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PNL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PNL is (n+8 weeks)

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