Modelling A.I. in Economics

CBOE Volatility Index Options & Futures Prediction (Forecast)

Sentiment Analysis is new way of machine learning to extract opinion orientation (positive, negative, neutral) from a text segment written for any product, organization, person or any other entity. Sentiment Analysis can be used to predict the mood of people that have impact on stock prices, therefore it can help in prediction of actual stock movement. We evaluate CBOE Volatility Index prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CBOE Volatility Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBOE Volatility Index stock.


Keywords: CBOE Volatility Index, CBOE Volatility Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. What is neural prediction?
  3. Reaction Function

CBOE Volatility Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper studies the possibilities of making prediction of stock market prices using historical data and machine learning algorithms. We consider CBOE Volatility Index Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of CBOE Volatility Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CBOE Volatility Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CBOE Volatility Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CBOE Volatility Index CBOE Volatility Index
Time series to forecast n: 16 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBOE Volatility Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

CBOE Volatility Index assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CBOE Volatility Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBOE Volatility Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for CBOE Volatility Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 8950
Market Risk7343
Technical Analysis5451
Fundamental Analysis3482
Risk Unsystematic5772

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 748 signals.

References

  1. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  2. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  3. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  4. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  5. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  6. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  7. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CBOE Volatility Index stock?
A: CBOE Volatility Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is CBOE Volatility Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBOE Volatility Index Stock.
Q: Is CBOE Volatility Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CBOE Volatility Index is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CBOE Volatility Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for CBOE Volatility Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CBOE Volatility Index stock?
A: The prediction period for CBOE Volatility Index is (n+3 month)

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