CNX Target Price Prediction

Stock market or Share market is one of the most complicated and sophisticated way to do business. Small ownerships, brokerage corporations, banking sector, all depend on this very body to make revenue and divide risks; a very complicated model. However, this paper proposes to use machine learning algorithm to predict the future stock price for exchange by using open source libraries and preexisting algorithms to help make this unpredictable format of business a little more predictable. We evaluate CNX Resources prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CNX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CNX stock.

Keywords: CNX, CNX Resources, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Can machine learning predict?
2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
3. Market Risk

CNX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price will maximize investor's gains. This paper proposes a machine learning model to predict stock market price. We consider CNX Resources Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CNX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CNX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CNX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CNX CNX Resources
Time series to forecast n: 11 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CNX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

CNX Resources assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CNX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CNX stock.

Financial State Forecast for CNX Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba2
Operational Risk	45	89
Market Risk	65	89
Technical Analysis	68	46
Fundamental Analysis	37	78
Risk Unsystematic	56	38

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 652 signals.

References

1. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
2. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
3. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
4. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
5. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
6. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CNX stock?
A: CNX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is CNX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CNX Stock.
Q: Is CNX Resources stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CNX Resources is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CNX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CNX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CNX stock?
A: The prediction period for CNX is (n+8 weeks)

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