Modelling A.I. in Economics

How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (HST Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks' historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks' historical price and technical indicators. We evaluate Host Hotels & Resorts prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.


Keywords: HST, Host Hotels & Resorts, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Trading Interaction
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

HST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Data mining and machine learning approaches can be incorporated into business intelligence (BI) systems to help users for decision support in many real-life applications. Here, in this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for BI applications. Specifically, we apply structural support vector machines (SSVMs) to perform classification on complex inputs such as the nodes of a graph structure. We consider Host Hotels & Resorts Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of HST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HST stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HST Host Hotels & Resorts
Time series to forecast n: 08 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Host Hotels & Resorts assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.

Financial State Forecast for HST Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 6577
Market Risk6433
Technical Analysis3870
Fundamental Analysis8047
Risk Unsystematic3379

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 635 signals.

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  3. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  4. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  5. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  6. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HST stock?
A: HST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is HST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST Stock.
Q: Is Host Hotels & Resorts stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Host Hotels & Resorts is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HST stock?
A: The consensus rating for HST is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HST stock?
A: The prediction period for HST is (n+16 weeks)

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