Modelling A.I. in Economics

How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (LON:GEMD Stock Forecast)

Development of linguistic technologies and penetration of social media provide powerful possibilities to investigate users' moods and psychological states of people. In this paper we discussed possibility to improve accuracy of stock market indicators predictions by using data about psychological states of Twitter users. For analysis of psychological states we used lexicon-based approach. We evaluate GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GEMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GEMD stock.


Keywords: LON:GEMD, GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. What is prediction model?

LON:GEMD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Data mining and machine learning approaches can be incorporated into business intelligence (BI) systems to help users for decision support in many real-life applications. Here, in this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for BI applications. Specifically, we apply structural support vector machines (SSVMs) to perform classification on complex inputs such as the nodes of a graph structure. We consider GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GEMD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GEMD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GEMD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GEMD GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 19 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GEMD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GEMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GEMD stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:GEMD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 4365
Market Risk8033
Technical Analysis6855
Fundamental Analysis5189
Risk Unsystematic3652

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 666 signals.

References

  1. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  2. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  3. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  4. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  5. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  6. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  7. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GEMD stock?
A: LON:GEMD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is LON:GEMD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GEMD Stock.
Q: Is GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GEM DIAMONDS LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GEMD stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GEMD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GEMD stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GEMD is (n+1 year)

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