Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you decide buy or sell a stock? (DY Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We evaluate Dycom Industries prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DY stock.


Keywords: DY, Dycom Industries, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can statistics predict the future?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

DY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The study of financial markets has been addressed in many works during the last years. Different methods have been used in order to capture the non-linear behavior which is characteristic of these complex systems. The development of profitable strategies has been associated with the predictive character of the market movement, and special attention has been devoted to forecast the trends of financial markets. We consider Dycom Industries Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of DY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DY stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DY Dycom Industries
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DY stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Dycom Industries assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DY stock.

Financial State Forecast for DY Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 3668
Market Risk4238
Technical Analysis7471
Fundamental Analysis5387
Risk Unsystematic6175

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 872 signals.

References

  1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  2. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  3. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  4. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  5. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  6. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  7. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DY stock?
A: DY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is DY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DY Stock.
Q: Is Dycom Industries stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dycom Industries is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DY stock?
A: The consensus rating for DY is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for DY stock?
A: The prediction period for DY is (n+16 weeks)

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