Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you decide buy or sell a stock? (LON:GDP Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction. We evaluate GOLDPLAT PLC prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GDP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GDP stock.


Keywords: LON:GDP, GOLDPLAT PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

LON:GDP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We consider GOLDPLAT PLC Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GDP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GDP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GDP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GDP GOLDPLAT PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GDP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

GOLDPLAT PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GDP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GDP stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:GDP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 6549
Market Risk7086
Technical Analysis4635
Fundamental Analysis6849
Risk Unsystematic6062

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 806 signals.

References

  1. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  2. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  3. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  4. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
  5. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  6. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GDP stock?
A: LON:GDP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:GDP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GDP Stock.
Q: Is GOLDPLAT PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GOLDPLAT PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GDP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GDP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GDP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GDP is (n+4 weeks)

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