Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you determine buy or sell? (DOV Stock Forecast)

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. We evaluate Dover prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DOV stock.


Keywords: DOV, Dover, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Is now good time to invest?
  2. Nash Equilibria
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

DOV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stocks are possibly the most popular financial instrument invented for building wealth and are the centerpiece of any investment portfolio. The advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. From last few decades, there seen explosive increase in the average person's interest for stock market. In a financially explosive market, as the stock market, it is important to have a very accurate prediction of a future trend. Because of the financial crisis and recording profits, it is compulsory to have a secure prediction of the values of the stocks. Predicting a non-linear signal requires progressive algorithms of machine learning with help of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We consider Dover Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of DOV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DOV stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DOV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DOV Dover
Time series to forecast n: 20 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DOV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Dover assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DOV stock.

Financial State Forecast for DOV Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Operational Risk 5473
Market Risk4639
Technical Analysis6749
Fundamental Analysis4533
Risk Unsystematic4770

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 518 signals.

References

  1. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  2. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  3. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  4. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  5. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  6. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  7. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DOV stock?
A: DOV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is DOV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DOV Stock.
Q: Is Dover stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dover is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DOV stock?
A: The consensus rating for DOV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for DOV stock?
A: The prediction period for DOV is (n+8 weeks)

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