How do you determine buy or sell? (TOL Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We evaluate Toll Brothers prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TOL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TOL stock.

Keywords: TOL, Toll Brothers, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Why do we need predictive models?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

TOL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. We consider Toll Brothers Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of TOL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TOL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TOL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TOL Toll Brothers
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TOL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Toll Brothers assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TOL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TOL stock.

Financial State Forecast for TOL Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B2
Operational Risk	42	41
Market Risk	76	75
Technical Analysis	88	34
Fundamental Analysis	30	43
Risk Unsystematic	38	65

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 669 signals.

References

1. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
2. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
3. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
4. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
5. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
6. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
7. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for TOL stock?
A: TOL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is TOL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TOL Stock.
Q: Is Toll Brothers stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Toll Brothers is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TOL stock?
A: The consensus rating for TOL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for TOL stock?
A: The prediction period for TOL is (n+4 weeks)

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