Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you determine buy or sell? (VNT Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

In this paper, we propose a robust and novel hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. The proposed model is constituted of two linear models: autoregressive moving average model, exponential smoothing model and a non-linear model: recurrent neural network. Training data for recurrent neural network is generated by a new regression model. Recurrent neural network produces satisfactory predictions as compared to linear models. With the goal to further improve the accuracy of predictions, the proposed hybrid prediction model merges predictions obtained from these three prediction based models. We evaluate Vontier prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VNT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNT stock.


Keywords: VNT, Vontier, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  3. What is prediction model?

VNT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We consider Vontier Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of VNT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VNT stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VNT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VNT Vontier
Time series to forecast n: 18 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNT stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Vontier assigned short-term B3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VNT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNT stock.

Financial State Forecast for VNT Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B3
Operational Risk 3568
Market Risk3040
Technical Analysis5452
Fundamental Analysis8943
Risk Unsystematic3230

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 513 signals.

References

  1. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  2. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  4. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  5. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  7. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for VNT stock?
A: VNT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is VNT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNT Stock.
Q: Is Vontier stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Vontier is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VNT stock?
A: The consensus rating for VNT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for VNT stock?
A: The prediction period for VNT is (n+6 month)

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