Stock markets are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors at both local and global levels. The key to successful stock market forecasting is achieving best results with minimum required input data. To determine the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions is a complicated task and so regular stock market analysis is very essential. More specifically, the stock market's movements are analyzed and predicted in order to retrieve knowledge that could guide investors on when to buy and sell. We evaluate Home Depot prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HD stock.

Keywords: HD, Home Depot, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. Game Theory
3. Reaction Function ## HD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction. We consider Home Depot Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of HD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HD Home Depot
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Home Depot assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HD stock.

### Financial State Forecast for HD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 3034
Market Risk6840
Technical Analysis3684
Fundamental Analysis8978
Risk Unsystematic7380

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 458 signals.

## References

1. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
2. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
3. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
4. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
5. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
6. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
7. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HD stock?
A: HD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is HD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HD Stock.
Q: Is Home Depot stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Home Depot is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HD stock?
A: The consensus rating for HD is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for HD stock?
A: The prediction period for HD is (n+16 weeks)