How Do You Pick a Stock? (CPG Stock Forecast)

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price will maximize investor's gains. This paper proposes a machine learning model to predict stock market price. We evaluate Compass Group prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CPG stock.


Keywords: CPG, Compass Group, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. Is now good time to invest?

CPG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Recently, a lot of interesting work has been done in the area of applying Machine Learning Algorithms for analyzing price patterns and predicting stock prices and index changes. Most stock traders nowadays depend on Intelligent Trading Systems which help them in predicting prices based on various situations and conditions, thereby helping them in making instantaneous investment decisions. We consider Compass Group Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CPG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CPG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CPG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CPG Compass Group
Time series to forecast n: 11 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CPG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Compass Group assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CPG stock.

Financial State Forecast for CPG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba2
Operational Risk 7966
Market Risk4981
Technical Analysis3931
Fundamental Analysis6777
Risk Unsystematic7889

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 497 signals.

References

  1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  2. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  3. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  4. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  5. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  6. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  7. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CPG stock?
A: CPG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is CPG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CPG Stock.
Q: Is Compass Group stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Compass Group is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CPG stock?
A: The consensus rating for CPG is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CPG stock?
A: The prediction period for CPG is (n+1 year)

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