How Do You Pick a Stock? (FTSE 100 Index Stock Forecast)

The main perfect of this composition is to discover the stylish version to prognosticate the cost of the inventory request. During the procedure of analyzing the colorful ways and variables to remember, we plant that approaches similar as Random woodland, machine help Vector were not absolutely exploited. We evaluate FTSE 100 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FTSE 100 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE 100 Index stock.

Keywords: FTSE 100 Index, FTSE 100 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. Can neural networks predict stock market?
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

FTSE 100 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods We consider FTSE 100 Index Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of FTSE 100 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FTSE 100 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FTSE 100 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FTSE 100 Index FTSE 100 Index
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE 100 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

FTSE 100 Index assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FTSE 100 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE 100 Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for FTSE 100 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	B1
Operational Risk	87	85
Market Risk	88	49
Technical Analysis	79	30
Fundamental Analysis	53	35
Risk Unsystematic	46	81

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 859 signals.

References

1. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
2. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
3. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
4. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
6. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
7. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FTSE 100 Index stock?
A: FTSE 100 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is FTSE 100 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE 100 Index Stock.
Q: Is FTSE 100 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FTSE 100 Index is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FTSE 100 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for FTSE 100 Index is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for FTSE 100 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for FTSE 100 Index is (n+4 weeks)

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