Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you predict if a stock will go up or down? (LON:PNN Stock Prediction) (Forecast)

In this paper, we propose a robust and novel hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. The proposed model is constituted of two linear models: autoregressive moving average model, exponential smoothing model and a non-linear model: recurrent neural network. Training data for recurrent neural network is generated by a new regression model. Recurrent neural network produces satisfactory predictions as compared to linear models. With the goal to further improve the accuracy of predictions, the proposed hybrid prediction model merges predictions obtained from these three prediction based models. We evaluate PENNON GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PNN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PNN stock.


Keywords: LON:PNN, PENNON GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Market Signals
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

LON:PNN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We consider PENNON GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PNN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PNN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:PNN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PNN PENNON GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PNN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

PENNON GROUP PLC assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PNN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PNN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:PNN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba3
Operational Risk 7081
Market Risk7637
Technical Analysis6982
Fundamental Analysis7074
Risk Unsystematic8458

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 476 signals.

References

  1. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  2. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  3. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  4. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  5. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  6. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  7. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PNN stock?
A: LON:PNN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:PNN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PNN Stock.
Q: Is PENNON GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PENNON GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PNN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PNN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PNN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PNN is (n+4 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.