Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you predict if a stock will go up or down? (LON:FSV Stock Prediction)

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. We evaluate FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:FSV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FSV stock.


Keywords: LON:FSV, FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Market Outlook
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

LON:FSV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Fuzzy rough theory can describe real-world situations in a mathematically effective and interpretable way, while evolutionary neural networks can be utilized to solve complex problems. Combining them with these complementary capabilities may lead to evolutionary fuzzy rough neural network with the interpretability and prediction capability. In this article, we propose modifications to the existing models of fuzzy rough neural network and then develop a powerful evolutionary framework for fuzzy rough neural networks by inheriting the merits of both the aforementioned systems. We consider FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:FSV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:FSV stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:FSV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:FSV FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC
Time series to forecast n: 24 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FSV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:FSV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FSV stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:FSV Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 4168
Market Risk6679
Technical Analysis3547
Fundamental Analysis8453
Risk Unsystematic5263

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 613 signals.

References

  1. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
  2. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  4. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  6. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  7. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:FSV stock?
A: LON:FSV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:FSV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FSV Stock.
Q: Is FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:FSV stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:FSV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:FSV stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:FSV is (n+1 year)

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