Accurate prediction of stock price movements is highly challenging and significant topic for investors. Investors need to understand that stock price data is the most essential information which is highly volatile, non-linear, and non-parametric and are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors across the globe. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been found to be an efficient tool in modeling stock prices and quite a large number of studies have been done on it. We evaluate Five Below prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FIVE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy FIVE stock.

Keywords: FIVE, Five Below, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
2. Probability Distribution
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## FIVE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In modern financial market, the most crucial problem is to find essential approach to outline and visualizing the predictions in stock-markets to be made by individuals in order to attain maximum profit by investments. The stock market is a transformative, non-straight dynamical and complex system. Long term investment is one of the major investment decisions. Though, evaluating shares and calculating elementary values for companies for long term investment is difficult. In this paper we are going to present comparison of machine learning aided algorithms to evaluate the stock prices in the future to analyze market behaviour. We consider Five Below Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of FIVE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FIVE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## FIVE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FIVE Five Below
Time series to forecast n: 09 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy FIVE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Five Below assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FIVE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy FIVE stock.

### Financial State Forecast for FIVE Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Operational Risk 3831
Market Risk5684
Technical Analysis7090
Fundamental Analysis7588
Risk Unsystematic6276

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 485 signals.

## References

1. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
4. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
5. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
6. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
7. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FIVE stock?
A: FIVE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Linear Regression
Q: Is FIVE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy FIVE Stock.
Q: Is Five Below stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Five Below is HoldBuy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FIVE stock?
A: The consensus rating for FIVE is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for FIVE stock?
A: The prediction period for FIVE is (n+4 weeks)