Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you predict if a stock will go up or down? (LON:GLEN Stock Prediction)

Security indices are the main tools for evaluation of the status of financial markets. Moreover, a main part of the economy of any country is constituted of investment in stock markets. Therefore, investors could maximize the return of investment if it becomes possible to predict the future trend of stock market with appropriate methods. The nonlinearity and nonstationarity of financial series make their prediction complicated. This study seeks to evaluate the prediction power of machine-learning models in a stock market. We evaluate GLENCORE PLC prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GLEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GLEN stock.


Keywords: LON:GLEN, GLENCORE PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. Stock Rating
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

LON:GLEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The presented paper modeled and predicted stock returns using LSTM. The historical data of stock market were transformed into 30-days-long sequences with 10 learning features and 7-day earning rate labeling. The model was fitted by training on 1200000 sequences and tested using the other 350000 sequences. We consider GLENCORE PLC Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GLEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GLEN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GLEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GLEN GLENCORE PLC
Time series to forecast n: 25 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GLEN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

GLENCORE PLC assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GLEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GLEN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:GLEN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba1
Operational Risk 3160
Market Risk5887
Technical Analysis3588
Fundamental Analysis7465
Risk Unsystematic3659

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 643 signals.

References

  1. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  2. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
  3. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  4. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  5. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  7. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GLEN stock?
A: LON:GLEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:GLEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GLEN Stock.
Q: Is GLENCORE PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GLENCORE PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GLEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GLEN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GLEN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GLEN is (n+3 month)

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