Modelling A.I. in Economics

How Is Machine Learning Used in Trading? (BPOP Stock Forecast)

Several intelligent data mining approaches, including neural networks, have been widely employed by academics during the last decade. In today's rapidly evolving economy, stock market data prediction and analysis play a significant role. Several non-linear models like neural network, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) as well as linear models like Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average (MA) and Auto Regressive (AR) may be used for stock forecasting. We evaluate POPULAR, INC. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BPOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP stock.


Keywords: BPOP, POPULAR, INC., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can machine learning predict?
  2. What is a prediction confidence?
  3. Dominated Move

BPOP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The stock market is an interesting industry to study. There are various variations present in it. Many experts have been studying and researching on the various trends that the stock market goes through. One of the major studies has been the attempt to predict the stock prices of various companies based on historical data. Prediction of stock prices will greatly help people to understand where and how to invest so that the risk of losing money is minimized. We consider POPULAR, INC. Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BPOP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BPOP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BPOP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BPOP POPULAR, INC.
Time series to forecast n: 18 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

POPULAR, INC. assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BPOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP stock.

Financial State Forecast for BPOP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 6367
Market Risk5154
Technical Analysis5168
Fundamental Analysis8340
Risk Unsystematic8668

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 692 signals.

References

  1. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  2. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  4. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  5. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  6. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  7. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BPOP stock?
A: BPOP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is BPOP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP Stock.
Q: Is POPULAR, INC. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for POPULAR, INC. is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BPOP stock?
A: The consensus rating for BPOP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BPOP stock?
A: The prediction period for BPOP is (n+16 weeks)

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