Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is AKAM stock expected to rise? (Forecast)

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We evaluate Akamai prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AKAM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AKAM stock.


Keywords: AKAM, Akamai, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

AKAM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

It has never been easy to invest in a set of assets, the abnormally of financial market does not allow simple models to predict future asset values with higher accuracy. Machine learning, which consist of making computers perform tasks that normally requiring human intelligence is currently the dominant trend in scientific research. This article aims to build a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and especially Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) to predict future stock market values. We consider Akamai Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AKAM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AKAM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AKAM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AKAM Akamai
Time series to forecast n: 06 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AKAM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Akamai assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AKAM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AKAM stock.

Financial State Forecast for AKAM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 3952
Market Risk3748
Technical Analysis8072
Fundamental Analysis8876
Risk Unsystematic7943

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 814 signals.

References

  1. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  2. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  3. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  4. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  5. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  6. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  7. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AKAM stock?
A: AKAM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is AKAM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AKAM Stock.
Q: Is Akamai stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Akamai is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AKAM stock?
A: The consensus rating for AKAM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AKAM stock?
A: The prediction period for AKAM is (n+4 weeks)

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