Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks' historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks' historical price and technical indicators. We evaluate HSBC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HSBA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HSBA stock.

Keywords: HSBA, HSBC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What is neural prediction?
3. How useful are statistical predictions? ## HSBA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning is a branch of computer science that has the potential to transform epidemiologic sciences. Amid a growing focus on "Big Data," it offers epidemiologists new tools to tackle problems for which classical methods are not well-suited. In order to critically evaluate the value of integrating machine learning algorithms and existing methods, however, it is essential to address language and technical barriers between the two fields that can make it difficult for epidemiologists to read and assess machine learning studies. We consider HSBC Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of HSBA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HSBA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HSBA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HSBA HSBC
Time series to forecast n: 13 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HSBA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

HSBC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HSBA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HSBA stock.

### Financial State Forecast for HSBA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 6566
Market Risk7780
Technical Analysis5150
Fundamental Analysis6041
Risk Unsystematic8032

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 766 signals.

## References

1. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
2. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
3. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
4. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
5. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
6. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
7. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HSBA stock?
A: HSBA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is HSBA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HSBA Stock.
Q: Is HSBC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HSBC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HSBA stock?
A: The consensus rating for HSBA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HSBA stock?
A: The prediction period for HSBA is (n+6 month)