Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is KRC Stock Buy or Sell? (Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) is a sub type of neural networks that use feedback connections. Several types of RNN models are used in predicting financial time series. This study was conducted to develop models to predict daily stock prices based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Approach and to measure the accuracy of the models developed and identify the shortcomings of the models if present. We evaluate Kilroy Realty Corp prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KRC stock.


Keywords: KRC, Kilroy Realty Corp, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. Why do we need predictive models?

KRC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market prediction is a major exertion in the field of finance and establishing businesses. Stock market is totally uncertain as the prices of stocks keep fluctuating on a daily basis because of numerous factors that influence it. One of the traditional ways of predicting stock prices was by using only historical data. But with time it was observed that other factors such as peoples' sentiments and other news events occurring in and around the country affect the stock market, for e.g. national elections, natural calamity etc. We consider Kilroy Realty Corp Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of KRC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KRC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KRC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: KRC Kilroy Realty Corp
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KRC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Kilroy Realty Corp assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KRC stock.

Financial State Forecast for KRC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B2
Operational Risk 7033
Market Risk8053
Technical Analysis6645
Fundamental Analysis9081
Risk Unsystematic5331

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 802 signals.

References

  1. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  2. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  3. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  5. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  6. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  7. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for KRC stock?
A: KRC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is KRC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KRC Stock.
Q: Is Kilroy Realty Corp stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Kilroy Realty Corp is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KRC stock?
A: The consensus rating for KRC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for KRC stock?
A: The prediction period for KRC is (n+3 month)

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