Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is LON:HCFT stock expected to rise? (Forecast)

Prediction of the trend of the stock market is very crucial. If someone has robust forecasting tools, then he/she will increase the return on investment and can get rich easily and quickly. Because there are a lot of factors that can influence the stock market, the stock forecasting problem has always been very complicated. Support Vector Regression is a tool from machine learning that can build a regression model on the historical time series data in the purpose of predicting the future trend of the stock price. We evaluate HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HCFT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HCFT stock.


Keywords: LON:HCFT, HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  2. Market Risk
  3. Dominated Move

LON:HCFT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. We consider HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HCFT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HCFT stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HCFT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HCFT HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 30 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HCFT stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC

  1. If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
  2. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
  3. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  4. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HCFT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HCFT stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HCFT HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 8937
Market Risk4864
Technical Analysis6148
Fundamental Analysis3643
Risk Unsystematic4987

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 573 signals.

References

  1. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  2. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  3. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  4. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  5. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  6. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  7. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HCFT stock?
A: LON:HCFT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:HCFT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HCFT Stock.
Q: Is HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HIGHCROFT INVESTMENTS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HCFT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HCFT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HCFT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HCFT is (n+16 weeks)

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