Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is LON:KDNC stock expected to rise? (Forecast)

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We evaluate CADENCE MINERALS PLC prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KDNC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KDNC stock.


Keywords: LON:KDNC, CADENCE MINERALS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is neural prediction?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. Reaction Function

LON:KDNC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Short - term price movements, contribute a considerable measure to the unpredictability of the securities exchanges. Accurately predicting the price fluctuations in stock market is a huge economical advantage. The aforementioned task is generally achieved by analyzing the company, this is called as fundamental analysis. Another method, which is undergoing a lot of research work recently, is to create a predictive algorithmic model using machine learning. To train machines to take trading decisions in such short - period of time, the latter method needs to be adopted. Deep Neural Networks, being the most exceptional innovation in Machine Learning, have been utilized to develop a short-term prediction model. We consider CADENCE MINERALS PLC Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:KDNC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:KDNC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:KDNC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:KDNC CADENCE MINERALS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KDNC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

CADENCE MINERALS PLC assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KDNC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KDNC stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:KDNC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B3
Operational Risk 8241
Market Risk8938
Technical Analysis5442
Fundamental Analysis7160
Risk Unsystematic6830

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 472 signals.

References

  1. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  2. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  3. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  4. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  5. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  6. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  7. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:KDNC stock?
A: LON:KDNC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:KDNC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KDNC Stock.
Q: Is CADENCE MINERALS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CADENCE MINERALS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:KDNC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:KDNC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:KDNC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:KDNC is (n+6 month)

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