Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is LON:MOS Stock Expected to Go Up? (Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend. We evaluate MOBILE STREAMS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MOS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MOS stock.


Keywords: LON:MOS, MOBILE STREAMS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. Stock Rating
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

LON:MOS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We consider MOBILE STREAMS PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MOS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:MOS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:MOS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:MOS MOBILE STREAMS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 19 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MOS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

MOBILE STREAMS PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MOS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MOS stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:MOS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 3576
Market Risk3334
Technical Analysis8959
Fundamental Analysis6550
Risk Unsystematic6936

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 836 signals.

References

  1. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  2. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  3. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  4. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  5. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  7. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MOS stock?
A: LON:MOS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:MOS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MOS Stock.
Q: Is MOBILE STREAMS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MOBILE STREAMS PLC is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MOS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MOS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MOS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MOS is (n+3 month)

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