Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is LON:VSL a Buy?

The stock market is very volatile and non-stationary and generates huge volumes of data in every second. In this article, the existing machine learning algorithms are analyzed for stock market forecasting and also a new pattern-finding algorithm for forecasting stock trend is developed. Three approaches can be used to solve the problem: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and the machine learning. Experimental analysis done in this article shows that the machine learning could be useful for investors to make profitable decisions. We evaluate VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:VSL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VSL stock.


Keywords: LON:VSL, VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

LON:VSL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of the trend of the stock market is very crucial. If someone has robust forecasting tools, then he/she will increase the return on investment and can get rich easily and quickly. Because there are a lot of factors that can influence the stock market, the stock forecasting problem has always been very complicated. Support Vector Regression is a tool from machine learning that can build a regression model on the historical time series data in the purpose of predicting the future trend of the stock price. We consider VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:VSL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:VSL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:VSL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:VSL VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 08 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VSL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:VSL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VSL stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:VSL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 3075
Market Risk8186
Technical Analysis6268
Fundamental Analysis7257
Risk Unsystematic3657

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 502 signals.

References

  1. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  2. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  3. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
  4. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  5. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  6. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  7. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:VSL stock?
A: LON:VSL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:VSL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VSL Stock.
Q: Is VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:VSL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:VSL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:VSL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:VSL is (n+6 month)

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