Is now good time to invest? (FNV Stock Forecast)

Neural networks, as an intelligent data mining method, have been used in many different challenging pattern recognition problems such as stock market prediction. However, there is no formal method to determine the optimal neural network for prediction purpose in the literature. In this paper, two kinds of neural networks, a feed forward multi layer Perceptron (MLP) and an Elman recurrent network, are used to predict a company's stock value based on its stock share value history. We evaluate Franco-Nevada Corporation prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FNV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FNV stock.

Keywords: FNV, Franco-Nevada Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Nash Equilibria
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

FNV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock index with traditional time series analysis has proven to be difficult an Artificial Neural network may be suitable for the task. A Neural Network has the ability to extract useful information from large set of data. This paper presents a review of literature application of Artificial Neural Network for stock market predictions and from this literature found that Artificial Neural Network is very useful for predicting world stock markets. We consider Franco-Nevada Corporation Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of FNV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FNV stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FNV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 07 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FNV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Franco-Nevada Corporation assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FNV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FNV stock.

Financial State Forecast for FNV Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba1
Operational Risk	85	61
Market Risk	77	77
Technical Analysis	33	50
Fundamental Analysis	33	79
Risk Unsystematic	51	84

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 459 signals.

References

1. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
2. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
3. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
4. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
5. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
6. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
7. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FNV stock?
A: FNV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is FNV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FNV Stock.
Q: Is Franco-Nevada Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Franco-Nevada Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FNV stock?
A: The consensus rating for FNV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FNV stock?
A: The prediction period for FNV is (n+6 month)

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