The success of portfolio construction depends primarily on the future performance of stock markets. Recent developments in machine learning have brought significant opportunities to incorporate prediction theory into portfolio selection. However, many studies show that a single prediction model is insufficient to achieve very accurate predictions and affluent returns. In this paper, a novel portfolio construction approach is developed using a hybrid model based on machine learning for stock prediction. We evaluate Thales prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HO.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HO.PA stock.

Keywords: HO.PA, Thales, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
2. Stock Rating
3. Stock Rating

## HO.PA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

A speculator on a Stock Market, aside from having money to spare, needs at least one other thing — a means of producing accurate and understandable predictions ahead of others in the Market, so that a tactical and price advantage can be gained. This work demonstrates that it is possible to predict one such Market to a high degree of accuracy. We consider Thales Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of HO.PA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HO.PA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HO.PA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HO.PA Thales
Time series to forecast n: 04 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HO.PA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Thales assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HO.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HO.PA stock.

### Financial State Forecast for HO.PA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 5460
Market Risk7081
Technical Analysis4551
Fundamental Analysis8131
Risk Unsystematic5655

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 766 signals.

## References

1. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
2. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
3. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
4. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
5. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
6. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
7. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HO.PA stock?
A: HO.PA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is HO.PA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HO.PA Stock.
Q: Is Thales stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Thales is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HO.PA stock?
A: The consensus rating for HO.PA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HO.PA stock?
A: The prediction period for HO.PA is (n+16 weeks)