Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is now good time to invest? (Nifty 50 Index Stock Forecast)

The classical linear multi-factor stock selection model is widely used for long-term stock price trend prediction. However, the stock market is chaotic, complex, and dynamic, for which reasons the linear model assumption may be unreasonable, and it is more meaningful to construct a better-integrated stock selection model based on different feature selection and nonlinear stock price trend prediction methods. We evaluate Nifty 50 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Nifty 50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index stock.


Keywords: Nifty 50 Index, Nifty 50 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. Stock Rating
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

Nifty 50 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With the advent of technological marvels like global digitization, the prediction of the stock market has entered a technologically advanced era, revamping the old model of trading. With the ceaseless increase in market capitalization, stock trading has become a center of investment for many financial investors. Many analysts and researchers have developed tools and techniques that predict stock price movements and help investors in proper decision-making. We consider Nifty 50 Index Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Nifty 50 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Nifty 50 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Nifty 50 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Nifty 50 Index Nifty 50 Index
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Nifty 50 Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Nifty 50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Nifty 50 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 6130
Market Risk6546
Technical Analysis7586
Fundamental Analysis4042
Risk Unsystematic8045

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 499 signals.

References

  1. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  2. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  3. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  4. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  5. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  6. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  7. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Nifty 50 Index stock?
A: Nifty 50 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is Nifty 50 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index Stock.
Q: Is Nifty 50 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nifty 50 Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Nifty 50 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Nifty 50 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Nifty 50 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Nifty 50 Index is (n+8 weeks)



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