Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is now good time to invest? (NOV Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We evaluate Nov prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NOV stock.


Keywords: NOV, Nov, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Trading Interaction
  3. Operational Risk

NOV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stocks is complicated by the dynamic, complex, and chaotic environment of the stock market. Many studies predict stock price movements using deep learning models. Although the attention mechanism has gained popularity recently in neural machine translation, little focus has been devoted to attention-based deep learning models for stock prediction. We consider Nov Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of NOV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NOV stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NOV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NOV Nov
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NOV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Nov assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NOV stock.

Financial State Forecast for NOV Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B1
Operational Risk 8980
Market Risk7775
Technical Analysis6137
Fundamental Analysis7048
Risk Unsystematic6047

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 671 signals.

References

  1. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  2. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  4. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  5. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  6. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  7. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NOV stock?
A: NOV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is NOV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NOV Stock.
Q: Is Nov stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nov is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NOV stock?
A: The consensus rating for NOV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NOV stock?
A: The prediction period for NOV is (n+16 weeks)

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