Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We evaluate IDFC Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IDFC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IDFC stock.

Keywords: NSE IDFC, IDFC Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. Dominated Move

## NSE IDFC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The stock market has been an attractive field for a large number of organizers and investors to derive useful predictions. Fundamental knowledge of stock market can be utilised with technical indicators to investigate different perspectives of the financial market; also, the influence of various events, financial news, and/or opinions on investors' decisions and hence, market trends have been observed. Such information can be exploited to make reliable predictions and achieve higher profitability. Computational intelligence has emerged with various deep neural network (DNN) techniques to address complex stock market problems. We consider IDFC Limited Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE IDFC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE IDFC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## NSE IDFC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE IDFC IDFC Limited
Time series to forecast n: 01 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IDFC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

IDFC Limited assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IDFC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IDFC stock.

### Financial State Forecast for NSE IDFC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba3
Operational Risk 8460
Market Risk8683
Technical Analysis7464
Fundamental Analysis7936
Risk Unsystematic6862

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 584 signals.

## References

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3. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
4. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
5. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
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Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE IDFC stock?
A: NSE IDFC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is NSE IDFC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IDFC Stock.
Q: Is IDFC Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for IDFC Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE IDFC stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE IDFC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE IDFC stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE IDFC is (n+16 weeks)