In this paper a Bayesian regularized artificial neural network is proposed as a novel method to forecast financial market behavior. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilized as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of individual stocks. The prediction of stock price movement is generally considered to be a challenging and important task for financial time series analysis. We evaluate Pilgrim's Pride prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PPC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PPC stock.

Keywords: PPC, Pilgrim's Pride, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

2. Stock Rating
3. What is prediction model?

## PPC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The nature of stock market movement has always been ambiguous for investors because of various influential factors. This study aims to significantly reduce the risk of trend prediction with machine learning and deep learning algorithms. We consider Pilgrim's Pride Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of PPC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PPC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PPC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PPC Pilgrim's Pride
Time series to forecast n: 08 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PPC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Pilgrim's Pride assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PPC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PPC stock.

### Financial State Forecast for PPC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 7464
Market Risk8460
Technical Analysis6682
Fundamental Analysis4471
Risk Unsystematic5555

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 876 signals.

## References

1. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
2. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
3. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
4. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
5. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
6. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
7. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PPC stock?
A: PPC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is PPC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PPC Stock.
Q: Is Pilgrim's Pride stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Pilgrim's Pride is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PPC stock?
A: The consensus rating for PPC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PPC stock?
A: The prediction period for PPC is (n+4 weeks)