Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is UNVR Stock Buy or Sell? (Stock Forecast)

This study aims to predict the direction of stock prices by integrating time-varying effective transfer entropy (ETE) and various machine learning algorithms. At first, we explore that the ETE based on 3 and 6 months moving windows can be regarded as the market explanatory variable by analyzing the association between the financial crises and Granger-causal relationships among the stocks. We evaluate Univar Solutions prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UNVR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UNVR stock.


Keywords: UNVR, Univar Solutions, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. Stock Rating

UNVR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With technological advancements, big data can be easily generated and collected in many applications. Embedded in these big data are useful information and knowledge that can be discovered by machine learning and data mining models, techniques or algorithms. We consider Univar Solutions Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of UNVR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UNVR stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

UNVR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: UNVR Univar Solutions
Time series to forecast n: 28 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UNVR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Univar Solutions

  1. If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  2. If a variable-rate financial liability bears interest of (for example) three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points (with a floor at zero basis points), an entity can designate as the hedged item the change in the cash flows of that entire liability (ie three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points—including the floor) that is attributable to changes in LIBOR. Hence, as long as the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability does not fall below 20 basis points, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a liability that bears interest at three-month LIBOR with a zero or positive spread. However, if the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability (or a part of it) falls below 20 basis points, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a liability that bears interest at threemonth LIBOR with a zero or positive spread.
  3. If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  4. However, the designation of the hedging relationship using the same hedge ratio as that resulting from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses shall not reflect an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would in turn create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. Hence, for the purpose of designating a hedging relationship, an entity must adjust the hedge ratio that results from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses if that is needed to avoid such an imbalance

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Univar Solutions assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UNVR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UNVR stock.

Financial State Forecast for UNVR Univar Solutions Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B3
Operational Risk 5939
Market Risk8640
Technical Analysis8930
Fundamental Analysis9054
Risk Unsystematic5569

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 583 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  2. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  3. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  4. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  5. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  6. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  7. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for UNVR stock?
A: UNVR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is UNVR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UNVR Stock.
Q: Is Univar Solutions stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Univar Solutions is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of UNVR stock?
A: The consensus rating for UNVR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for UNVR stock?
A: The prediction period for UNVR is (n+16 weeks)

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