Modelling A.I. in Economics

LESL Target Price Prediction (Forecast)

Complex networks in stock market and stock price volatility pattern prediction are the important issues in stock price research. Previous studies have used historical information regarding a single stock to predict the future trend of the stock's price, seldom considering comovement among stocks in the same market. In this study, in order to extract the information about relation stocks for prediction, we try to combine the complex network method with machine learning to predict stock price patterns. We evaluate Leslie's prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LESL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LESL stock.


Keywords: LESL, Leslie's, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Market Signals

LESL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods We consider Leslie's Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LESL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LESL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LESL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LESL Leslie's
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LESL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Leslie's assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LESL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LESL stock.

Financial State Forecast for LESL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B1
Operational Risk 6086
Market Risk7440
Technical Analysis6750
Fundamental Analysis8135
Risk Unsystematic8772

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 551 signals.

References

  1. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  2. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  4. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  5. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  7. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LESL stock?
A: LESL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is LESL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LESL Stock.
Q: Is Leslie's stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Leslie's is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LESL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LESL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LESL stock?
A: The prediction period for LESL is (n+8 weeks)

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