LON:ALM Stock Price Prediction

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate ALLIED MINDS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ALM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ALM stock.


Keywords: LON:ALM, ALLIED MINDS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Game Theory
  2. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  3. Reaction Function

LON:ALM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The study of financial markets has been addressed in many works during the last years. Different methods have been used in order to capture the non-linear behavior which is characteristic of these complex systems. The development of profitable strategies has been associated with the predictive character of the market movement, and special attention has been devoted to forecast the trends of financial markets. We consider ALLIED MINDS PLC Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ALM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ALM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ALM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ALM ALLIED MINDS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 12 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ALM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

ALLIED MINDS PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ALM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ALM stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:ALM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 5553
Market Risk6387
Technical Analysis6454
Fundamental Analysis8043
Risk Unsystematic6076

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 463 signals.

References

  1. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  2. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  3. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  4. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  5. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  6. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  7. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ALM stock?
A: LON:ALM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:ALM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ALM Stock.
Q: Is ALLIED MINDS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ALLIED MINDS PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ALM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ALM is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ALM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ALM is (n+6 month)

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