Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:HFG Options & Futures Prediction (Forecast)

Machine Learning refers to a concept in which a machine has been programmed to learn specific patterns from historical data using powerful algorithms and make predictions in future based on the patterns it learnt. Machine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the term proposed in 1959 by Arthur Samuel who defined it as the ability of computers or machines to learn new rules and concepts from data without being explicitly programmed. We evaluate HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HFG stock.


Keywords: LON:HFG, HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. Reaction Function
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

LON:HFG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. We consider HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HFG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HFG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HFG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HFG HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 08 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HFG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HFG stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HFG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 6245
Market Risk3789
Technical Analysis8787
Fundamental Analysis7956
Risk Unsystematic3433

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 638 signals.

References

  1. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
  2. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  3. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  4. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  5. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  6. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  7. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HFG stock?
A: LON:HFG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is LON:HFG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HFG Stock.
Q: Is HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HILTON FOOD GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HFG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HFG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HFG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HFG is (n+1 year)

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