Machine Learning stock prediction: FND Stock Prediction

The stock market is one of the key sectors of a country's economy. It provides investors with an opportunity to invest and gain returns on their investment. Predicting the stock market is a very challenging task and has attracted serious interest from researchers from many fields such as statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, and finance. An accurate prediction of the stock market reduces investment risk in the market. Different approaches have been used to predict the stock market. The performances of Machine learning (ML) models are typically superior to those of statistical and econometric models. We evaluate Floor & Decor prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FND stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FND stock.

Keywords: FND, Floor & Decor, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. Reaction Function
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

FND Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. We consider Floor & Decor Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of FND stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FND stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FND Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FND Floor & Decor
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FND stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Floor & Decor assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FND stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FND stock.

Financial State Forecast for FND Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B3
Operational Risk	89	48
Market Risk	64	46
Technical Analysis	45	31
Fundamental Analysis	54	67
Risk Unsystematic	41	31

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 849 signals.

References

1. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
2. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
3. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
4. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
5. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
7. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FND stock?
A: FND stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is FND stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FND Stock.
Q: Is Floor & Decor stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Floor & Decor is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FND stock?
A: The consensus rating for FND is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FND stock?
A: The prediction period for FND is (n+8 weeks)

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