Modelling A.I. in Economics

Machine Learning stock prediction: SKG Stock Prediction

Stock markets are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors at both local and global levels. The key to successful stock market forecasting is achieving best results with minimum required input data. To determine the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions is a complicated task and so regular stock market analysis is very essential. More specifically, the stock market's movements are analyzed and predicted in order to retrieve knowledge that could guide investors on when to buy and sell. We evaluate Smurfit Kappa prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SKG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SKG stock.


Keywords: SKG, Smurfit Kappa, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

SKG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Accurate prediction of stock price movements is highly challenging and significant topic for investors. Investors need to understand that stock price data is the most essential information which is highly volatile, non-linear, and non-parametric and are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors across the globe. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been found to be an efficient tool in modeling stock prices and quite a large number of studies have been done on it. We consider Smurfit Kappa Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of SKG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SKG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SKG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SKG Smurfit Kappa
Time series to forecast n: 11 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SKG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Smurfit Kappa assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SKG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SKG stock.

Financial State Forecast for SKG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 3958
Market Risk4974
Technical Analysis4461
Fundamental Analysis5472
Risk Unsystematic6039

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 596 signals.

References

  1. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  2. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  3. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  5. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  6. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SKG stock?
A: SKG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is SKG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SKG Stock.
Q: Is Smurfit Kappa stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Smurfit Kappa is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SKG stock?
A: The consensus rating for SKG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SKG stock?
A: The prediction period for SKG is (n+3 month)

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