Machine Learning stock prediction: VLY Stock Prediction

This paper examines the theory and practice of regression techniques for prediction of stock price trend by using a transformed data set in ordinal data format. The original pretransformed data source contains data of heterogeneous data types used for handling of currency values and financial ratios. The data formats in currency values and financial ratios provide a process for computation of stock prices. The transformed data set contains only a standardized ordinal data type which provides a process to measure rankings of stock price trends. We evaluate Valley prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VLY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VLY stock.

Keywords: VLY, Valley, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. Decision Making

VLY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend. We consider Valley Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of VLY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VLY stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VLY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VLY Valley
Time series to forecast n: 11 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VLY stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Valley assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VLY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VLY stock.

Financial State Forecast for VLY Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Operational Risk	41	71
Market Risk	88	39
Technical Analysis	36	78
Fundamental Analysis	37	46
Risk Unsystematic	76	87

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 743 signals.

References

1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
2. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
3. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
4. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
5. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
6. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
7. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VLY stock?
A: VLY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is VLY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VLY Stock.
Q: Is Valley stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Valley is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VLY stock?
A: The consensus rating for VLY is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for VLY stock?
A: The prediction period for VLY is (n+6 month)

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