Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate Motorola Solutions prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MSI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MSI stock.

Keywords: MSI, Motorola Solutions, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Can statistics predict the future?
2. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
3. Operational Risk

MSI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We consider Motorola Solutions Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of MSI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MSI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MSI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MSI Motorola Solutions
Time series to forecast n: 14 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MSI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Motorola Solutions assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MSI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MSI stock.

Financial State Forecast for MSI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 8261
Market Risk4285
Technical Analysis3078
Fundamental Analysis7530
Risk Unsystematic4367

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 720 signals.

References

1. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
2. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
3. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
4. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
5. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
6. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
7. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MSI stock?
A: MSI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is MSI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MSI Stock.
Q: Is Motorola Solutions stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Motorola Solutions is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MSI stock?
A: The consensus rating for MSI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for MSI stock?
A: The prediction period for MSI is (n+8 weeks)