Modelling A.I. in Economics

Short/Long Term Stocks: BKNG Stock Forecast (Forecast)

The success of portfolio construction depends primarily on the future performance of stock markets. Recent developments in machine learning have brought significant opportunities to incorporate prediction theory into portfolio selection. However, many studies show that a single prediction model is insufficient to achieve very accurate predictions and affluent returns. In this paper, a novel portfolio construction approach is developed using a hybrid model based on machine learning for stock prediction. We evaluate Booking Holdings prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BKNG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKNG stock.


Keywords: BKNG, Booking Holdings, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is prediction model?
  2. Market Risk
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

BKNG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning addresses the question of how to build computers that improve automatically through experience. It is one of today's most rapidly growing technical fields, lying at the intersection of computer science and statistics, and at the core of artificial intelligence and data science. We consider Booking Holdings Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BKNG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BKNG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BKNG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BKNG Booking Holdings
Time series to forecast n: 24 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKNG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Booking Holdings assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BKNG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKNG stock.

Financial State Forecast for BKNG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 6246
Market Risk4139
Technical Analysis8460
Fundamental Analysis3684
Risk Unsystematic5489

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 708 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  3. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  5. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  6. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BKNG stock?
A: BKNG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is BKNG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKNG Stock.
Q: Is Booking Holdings stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Booking Holdings is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BKNG stock?
A: The consensus rating for BKNG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BKNG stock?
A: The prediction period for BKNG is (n+1 year)

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