Modelling A.I. in Economics

Short/Long Term Stocks: LON:AOM Stock Forecast (Forecast)

With the up-gradation of technology and exploration of new machine learning models, the stock market data analysis has gained attention as these models provide a platform for businessman and traders to choose more profitable stocks. As these data are in large volumes and highly complex so a need of more efficient machine learning model for daily predictions is always looked upon. We evaluate ACTIVEOPS PLC prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AOM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:AOM stock.


Keywords: LON:AOM, ACTIVEOPS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. Game Theory
  3. Trading Signals

LON:AOM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper addresses problem of predicting direction of movement of stock and stock price index. The study compares four prediction models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), random forest and naive-Bayes with two approaches for input to these models. We consider ACTIVEOPS PLC Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AOM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AOM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AOM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AOM ACTIVEOPS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:AOM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

ACTIVEOPS PLC assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AOM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:AOM stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:AOM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba3
Operational Risk 4087
Market Risk6252
Technical Analysis3031
Fundamental Analysis3881
Risk Unsystematic5280

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 840 signals.

References

  1. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  2. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  3. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  4. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  5. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  6. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  7. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AOM stock?
A: LON:AOM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:AOM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:AOM Stock.
Q: Is ACTIVEOPS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ACTIVEOPS PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AOM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AOM is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AOM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AOM is (n+16 weeks)

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