Short/Long Term Stocks: LON:THG Stock Forecast

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We evaluate THG PLC prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:THG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:THG stock.

Keywords: LON:THG, THG PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Is Target price a good indicator?
3. Reaction Function

LON:THG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The categorization of high dimensional data present a fascinating challenge to machine learning models as frequent number of highly correlated dimensions or attributes can affect the accuracy of classification model. In this paper, the problem of high dimensionality of stock exchange is investigated to predict the market trends by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) with linear regression. PCA can help to improve the predictive performance of machine learning methods while reducing the redundancy among the data. We consider THG PLC Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:THG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:THG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:THG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:THG THG PLC
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:THG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

THG PLC assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:THG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:THG stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:THG Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Baa2
Operational Risk	88	88
Market Risk	45	86
Technical Analysis	37	35
Fundamental Analysis	35	79
Risk Unsystematic	40	78

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 771 signals.

References

1. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
2. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
3. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
4. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
5. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
6. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
7. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:THG stock?
A: LON:THG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:THG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:THG Stock.
Q: Is THG PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for THG PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:THG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:THG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:THG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:THG is (n+4 weeks)

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