Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? (H Stock Forecast)

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the use of machine learning to help aid in the accurate predictions of financial markets. Despite the exciting advances in this cross-section of finance and AI, many of the current approaches are limited to using technical analysis to capture historical trends of each stock price and thus limited to certain experimental setups to obtain good prediction results. On the other hand, professional investors additionally use their rich knowledge of inter-market and inter-company relations to map the connectivity of companies and events, and use this map to make better market predictions. For instance, they would predict the movement of a certain company's stock price based not only on its former stock price trends but also on the performance of its suppliers or customers, the overall industry, macroeconomic factors and trade policies. This paper investigates the effectiveness of work at the intersection of market predictions and graph neural networks, which hold the potential to mimic the ways in which investors make decisions by incorporating company knowledge graphs directly into the predictive model. We evaluate Hyatt Hotels prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the H stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold H stock.


Keywords: H, Hyatt Hotels, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Nash Equilibria
  3. What is prediction in deep learning?

H Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Investors raise profit from stock market by maximising gains and minimising loses. The profit is difficult to raise because of the volatile nature of stock market prices. Predictive modelling allows investors to make informed decisions. We consider Hyatt Hotels Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of H stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of H stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

H Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: H Hyatt Hotels
Time series to forecast n: 06 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold H stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Hyatt Hotels assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the H stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold H stock.

Financial State Forecast for H Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 4630
Market Risk4648
Technical Analysis5344
Fundamental Analysis5360
Risk Unsystematic7689

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 847 signals.

References

  1. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  2. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  3. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  4. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  5. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  6. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  7. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for H stock?
A: H stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is H stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold H Stock.
Q: Is Hyatt Hotels stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Hyatt Hotels is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of H stock?
A: The consensus rating for H is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for H stock?
A: The prediction period for H is (n+1 year)



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