Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? (MU Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We evaluate Micron prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MU stock.


Keywords: MU, Micron, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How useful are statistical predictions?
  2. Game Theory
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

MU Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The main objective of this research is to predict the market performance on day closing using different machine learning techniques. The prediction model uses different attributes as an input and predicts market as Positive & Negative. We consider Micron Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of MU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MU stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MU Micron
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MU stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Micron assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MU stock.

Financial State Forecast for MU Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 4771
Market Risk4947
Technical Analysis8731
Fundamental Analysis5976
Risk Unsystematic6633

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 847 signals.

References

  1. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  2. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  3. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  4. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  5. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  6. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  7. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MU stock?
A: MU stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test
Q: Is MU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MU Stock.
Q: Is Micron stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Micron is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MU stock?
A: The consensus rating for MU is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for MU stock?
A: The prediction period for MU is (n+6 month)

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