Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? (ABMD Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

We present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict stock market indices, particularly with respect to the forecast of their trend movements up or down. Exploiting different Neural Networks architectures, we provide numerical analysis of concrete financial time series. In particular, after a brief r ́esum ́e of the existing literature on the subject, we consider the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Net- works (CNN), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks techniques. We evaluate Abiomed prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ABMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ABMD stock.


Keywords: ABMD, Abiomed, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. Market Signals

ABMD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market prediction is a crucial and challenging task due to its nonlinear, evolutionary, complex, and dynamic nature. Research on the stock market has been an important issue for researchers in recent years. Companies invest in trading the stock market. Predicting the stock market trend accurately will minimize the risk and bring a maximum amount of profit for all the stakeholders. During the last several years, a lot of studies have been done to predict stock market trends using Traditional, Machine learning and deep learning techniques. We consider Abiomed Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ABMD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ABMD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ABMD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ABMD Abiomed
Time series to forecast n: 25 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ABMD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Abiomed assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ABMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ABMD stock.

Financial State Forecast for ABMD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 3256
Market Risk6732
Technical Analysis7757
Fundamental Analysis7557
Risk Unsystematic8286

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 796 signals.

References

  1. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  2. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  5. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  7. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ABMD stock?
A: ABMD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is ABMD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ABMD Stock.
Q: Is Abiomed stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Abiomed is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ABMD stock?
A: The consensus rating for ABMD is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ABMD stock?
A: The prediction period for ABMD is (n+16 weeks)

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