Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? (IDA Stock Forecast)

This paper studies the possibilities of making prediction of stock market prices using historical data and machine learning algorithms. We evaluate Idacorp prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IDA stock.

Keywords: IDA, Idacorp, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is prediction in deep learning?
2. Probability Distribution
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

IDA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stocks is complicated by the dynamic, complex, and chaotic environment of the stock market. Many studies predict stock price movements using deep learning models. Although the attention mechanism has gained popularity recently in neural machine translation, little focus has been devoted to attention-based deep learning models for stock prediction. We consider Idacorp Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of IDA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IDA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IDA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IDA Idacorp
Time series to forecast n: 07 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IDA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Idacorp assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IDA stock.

Financial State Forecast for IDA Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba3
Operational Risk	33	34
Market Risk	49	69
Technical Analysis	83	61
Fundamental Analysis	73	85
Risk Unsystematic	54	64

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 681 signals.

References

1. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
2. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
3. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
4. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
6. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for IDA stock?
A: IDA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is IDA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IDA Stock.
Q: Is Idacorp stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Idacorp is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IDA stock?
A: The consensus rating for IDA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for IDA stock?
A: The prediction period for IDA is (n+3 month)

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