In this paper a Bayesian regularized artificial neural network is proposed as a novel method to forecast financial market behavior. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilized as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of individual stocks. The prediction of stock price movement is generally considered to be a challenging and important task for financial time series analysis. We evaluate UGI Corporation prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

Keywords: UGI, UGI Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

## UGI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stocks are possibly the most popular financial instrument invented for building wealth and are the centerpiece of any investment portfolio. The advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. From last few decades, there seen explosive increase in the average person's interest for stock market. In a financially explosive market, as the stock market, it is important to have a very accurate prediction of a future trend. Because of the financial crisis and recording profits, it is compulsory to have a secure prediction of the values of the stocks. Predicting a non-linear signal requires progressive algorithms of machine learning with help of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We consider UGI Corporation Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of UGI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UGI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## UGI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: UGI UGI Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 13 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

UGI Corporation assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

### Financial State Forecast for UGI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 8072
Market Risk5130
Technical Analysis4376
Fundamental Analysis7042
Risk Unsystematic6454

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 669 signals.

## References

1. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
2. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
3. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
4. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
5. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
6. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
7. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for UGI stock?
A: UGI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is UGI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI Stock.
Q: Is UGI Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for UGI Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of UGI stock?
A: The consensus rating for UGI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for UGI stock?
A: The prediction period for UGI is (n+6 month)