Modelling A.I. in Economics

What are the most successful trading algorithms? (ODFL Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Social media comments have in the past had an instantaneous effect on stock markets. This paper investigates the sentiments expressed on the social media platform Twitter and their pr edictive impact on the Stock Market. We evaluate Old Dominion prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ODFL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ODFL stock.


Keywords: ODFL, Old Dominion, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. What is prediction in deep learning?

ODFL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The nature of stock market movement has always been ambiguous for investors because of various influential factors. This study aims to significantly reduce the risk of trend prediction with machine learning and deep learning algorithms. We consider Old Dominion Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of ODFL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ODFL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ODFL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ODFL Old Dominion
Time series to forecast n: 18 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ODFL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Old Dominion assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ODFL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ODFL stock.

Financial State Forecast for ODFL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba3
Operational Risk 7780
Market Risk9053
Technical Analysis5770
Fundamental Analysis9077
Risk Unsystematic8533

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 492 signals.

References

  1. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  2. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
  3. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  4. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  5. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  6. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  7. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ODFL stock?
A: ODFL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is ODFL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ODFL Stock.
Q: Is Old Dominion stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Old Dominion is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ODFL stock?
A: The consensus rating for ODFL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ODFL stock?
A: The prediction period for ODFL is (n+8 weeks)

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