Investors raise profit from stock market by maximising gains and minimising loses. The profit is difficult to raise because of the volatile nature of stock market prices. Predictive modelling allows investors to make informed decisions. We evaluate HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HKLD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HKLD stock.

Keywords: LON:HKLD, HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
2. What is prediction model?
3. Why do we need predictive models?

## LON:HKLD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task due to volatile and non-linear nature of the financial stock markets. With the introduction of artificial intelligence and increased computational capabilities, programmed methods of prediction have proved to be more efficient in predicting stock prices. We consider HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HKLD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HKLD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:HKLD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HKLD HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD
Time series to forecast n: 29 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HKLD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD

1. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
2. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.
3. The accounting for the forward element of forward contracts in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16 applies only to the extent that the forward element relates to the hedged item (aligned forward element). The forward element of a forward contract relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the forward contract (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the forward contract and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned forward element, ie how much of the forward element included in the forward contract (actual forward element) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16). An entity determines the aligned forward element using the valuation of the forward contract that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
4. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HKLD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HKLD stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:HKLD HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba3
Operational Risk 4849
Market Risk5372
Technical Analysis3887
Fundamental Analysis3751
Risk Unsystematic3558

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 489 signals.

## References

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2. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
3. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
4. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
5. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
7. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HKLD stock?
A: LON:HKLD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:HKLD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HKLD Stock.
Q: Is HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HONG KONG LAND HOLDINGS LD is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HKLD stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HKLD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HKLD stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HKLD is (n+16 weeks)